Following my last post about a month ago, C-19 seems to about on the track I predicted and just been labeled a pandemic by WHO. Unfortunately not the Dr Who who can fix just about anything in the universe, but bureaucratic doctors who can officiate, record, make authoritative statements, compile statistics, make epidemiological studies, but can do bugger all in the real world. As I said a month ago, C-19 will join the other scourges of mankind, but probably fade in it’s fatality rate as it evolves and tries and keep it’s hosts alive for further exploitation.
So I sense there is a dilemma amongst epidemiologists about strategies. Easiest is to let the virus have it’s wicked way and sweep through society knocking off the sick and elderly to quickly produce some herd immunity. A purge of the unfit and useless economic contributors is surely society’s gain. Then again, these are the people in power, so that is not going to happen.
Another strategy is to “flatten the curve”. That is slow down the spread by social isolation and travel bans to avoid overwhelming the health facilities. This admits defeat about containment, but offers some possibility of palliative care for the worse afflicted. This is current strategy adopted by Australia and most of the world. It may not reduce infections or fatalities, but is aimed at preventing the health system being totally overwhelmed. And if it can postpone the peak long enough, a vaccine could then save a lot of people and give enough confidence to drop the draconian restrictions and kick-start the economy again.
The problem with this is that the ‘cure’ could be worst than the disease. China has crashed it’s production and economy, but I admire the heroic and effective efforts it has made. Australia has just trashed it’s tourist industry by banning flights and insisting on 2 weeks of self isolation for anyone entering. What a thrilling holiday that would be. France has closed all cafes, restaurants and such, Italy is in lockdown, and countries everywhere grinding to an economic halt.
There will be real and terrible economic consequences. I’m not talking about stock markets or the top end of town, as somehow they always seem to manage although they complain a lot. I’m talking about small businesses and gig workers with no work and performers and actors etc, suddenly deprived of an audience. Will teachers be paid when schools are closed? Any sick pay for casual workers?
On the bright side…. I am astonished that China has reported no new cases in the last two days. Figures from China have long been suspect as having being manipulated for political reasons, but in this case, I can see no political gain having already admitted the problem. Also, this is a virus, quite unresponsive to political correctness or being censored. If the communist party were suppressing numbers, I think piles of corpses would soon gain world attention. So I am inclined to think that the containment measures in China have worked. The rest of the world is playing catch-up by implementing their methods without giving credit. And without yet seeing the same success. Italy has tried lockdown but the exponential curve continues. Spain is in a similar crisis. Germany seems to be doing better with containment.
Australia seems to be on the exponential curve with little sign of “flattening”. How did China, the most populous nation on earth, get a handle on this and other countries lose control? If I am right in thinking China has actually quashed the virus. Why aren’t afflicted countries beating a path to China’s door to beg some guidance? I am thinking that the difference in the effectiveness of ‘social distancing’ and ‘self isolation’ measures depends on the discipline of the population to implement the measures. It may be that in Italy, Spain, Iran, and Australia there is a certain level of disregard for authority. A bit of ‘she’ll be right’.
I have a message for the Australian people. Toilet paper will not guarantee your survival. Closer to the mark was hoarding rice and pasta, but that deprives other people. I take note of a saying from west coast American native tribes “best place to store food is in the bellies of your friends”. I think if this crisis cuts deeper than toilet paper, this will be remembered. I hope so.
I also hope that many people get the opportunity, or are forced to consider what are the most important things for them. Many things can be discarded as we get down to the fundamental requirements for a satisfying life. So many material things are unimportant compared to health and relationships. Of course food is way up there, but that is not threatened in the present crisis. Winston Churchill said “never let a good crisis go to waste”. Let us use it as an opportunity to consider what is really essential to our lives.
Dear Paul,
I am enjoying your website. I will share it today on Facebook and I hope you will have many virtual & real-life VISITORS.
I surfed in from an article in The Guardian about the island of Ata. It was occupied for about 15 months by 6 boys who had a big adventure & are still friends. Also mentioned was the ship captain that spotted smoke on the island & rescued the castaways.
Anyway, I am not sure how, but I landed here.
Best wishes,
Jane near Stuttgart, Germany
Right on Mr. T! I’m personally heartened by the vast number of people who are re-thinking their lives and its consequences. As Sir Winston said, opportunity is knocking if only we recognise it. There’s also the wisdom “Buy straw hats in Winter”. Of course, the Third World countries don’t have such opportunities, they live each day to survive. We, the fortunate, do. If we throw Greed, Pride, Envy, Lust and Gluttony out the nearest window we’ll have it made. Thank you Paul for your depth of perception, opening our eyes to possibilities.
A social distance wave from a locked down WA, flattening our curve… till god knows when 😊
One of your points was that to delay the spread of the virus might allow time for a vaccine to be developed. This to me seems almost the sole justification for shutting down the planet – as you say, that cure has side effects that may be worse than the disease, (especially if the usual testing, debates, bureaucracy, costing, production and distribution of a candidate vaccine has to be endured.) To my mind, that is the only point. Without constant monitoring and vaccines, one or more seasonal influenza epidemics could be even more serious, as history shows, and we don’t close down for that. Although, as your Winnie quote suggests, the present crisis may be regarded as a useful test run, should Marburg, Lassa or Ebola ever become pandemic.
Thanks for your words Paul.